Ralph Melton (ralphmelton) wrote,
Ralph Melton
ralphmelton

Crits in the Super Bowl

It occurs to me that I can be specific about what I mean by "the game will be decided by critical successes and failures", enough so to make some specific predictions to test this theory.

Premises of data gathering:
#1. I claim that criticals are fairly unambiguous. (There's some handwaving there.) If someone in the bathroom knows from the cheering that something big just happened, that's a crit.
#2. I claim that crits can be divided into four categories: good for the Steelers' score, bad for the Steelers' score, good for the Cardinals' score, bad for their score.

I'll try to record what I think the crits are, and which of those categories they fall into. Since I claim that crits are blatant and memorable, I think I can record the crits even if I don't have a notepad with me continuously.

Based on this methodology, I'll make these predictions:
#1. There will be 4 +/- 2 crits during the game.
#2. I predict that the "non-crit" score is 20 Steelers, 17 Cardinals, and that each crit is worth about 6 points. I claim that if you take that non-crit prediction of 20 and add or subtract 6 points per crit in the obvious way, the result will be within 4 points of the Steelers' final score.
#3. Ditto for the Cardinals.
#4. At least one of Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, or Troy Polamalu will score a critical success.
#5. Critical successes will outnumber critical failures.

I probably won't be correct with all five of these predictions, but if I score 3 out of 5, I'll regard this as a weak success, and if I score 4 out of 5, I'll regard this as a strong success.

Edit: I should add another claim: there will be at most one incident for which there's significant uncertainty over whether it's a crit or not. I think that I need to claim this separately from the 3 out of 5 of my previous claims; part of my claim here is that crits are qualitatively different from normal rolls.
Subscribe
  • Post a new comment

    Error

    default userpic

    Your IP address will be recorded 

    When you submit the form an invisible reCAPTCHA check will be performed.
    You must follow the Privacy Policy and Google Terms of use.
  • 0 comments